Election results: yet another important success!

 

Some people who are interested in the Free State Project are not interested in politics. And the Free State Project isn't a political project per se. Even so, last week was a big week and the events in the political arena are worth commenting on. Many (though not all) of our participants are involved in politics in some form or another. I believe we have witnessed results that are both disappointing and, at the same time, cause for more hope than ever before for anyone who loves freedom.

 

Many a writer has opined that this election spells the end of freedom in America. Indeed, when the pro-freedom choices are really bad and even worse, the future appears gloomy. For those whose freedom preferences favor reducing government involvement in war and civil liberties infringements, the outcome of this last election may be looked upon in a positive light. However, those concerned more about economic issues would disagree. Really, both types of people have reason to be disappointed. I think Jim Babka of DownsizeDC got it right last week when he said: “Republicans are out. Democrats are in. Will this downsize government? No.”

Having said that, I think it's appropriate to announce this success: Joel Winters, an early-moving Free State Project participant, was elected to the New Hampshire State House last week.

That's right, the very first election where FSP participants who have moved to New Hampshire since the state vote could legally run for State House, one actually won. Congratulations, Joel!

Now that's good news, but there's bad news, too. In balance, though, I think it's great news, and I'll tell you why in a minute. The good news part is obvious – he won. The bad news part is that there were more candidates who didn't fare so well. Some did better than others, and I'm thrilled that each of them took the time to run. Even so, some people are disappointed with the results, even among FSP participants. Truth be known, I was hoping for more, but I'm faced with the reality – one won. And that's great news.

Two years ago there were fewer than 70 early movers (I know this because I was somewhere in the 60's and moved here in late October, 2004). To run for State House, you have to have lived in New Hampshire over two years. As far as I know, 7 early movers, out of fewer than 70 eligible to run, were running for State House going into the primaries. 3 were in contested primaries and 2 of them won, including Winters. That's great news. Unfortunately, one had to drop out of his race leaving 5 going into the general election last week.

Four of them, all Republicans, didn't win. They were all in heavily Democratic districts. I won't dive into the analysis of every race, but one stood out to me. In a race for 3 seats with 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans, the 3 Democrats won by a considerable margin, but the early mover was the very top Republican, beating out the other two by more than 15%. Not a victory, but still a noteworthy return.

While good results are worth mentioning, the fact is only one early mover won a seat in the State House out of 7 who ran. Those are pretty lousy results, right? 70 eligible, 7 ran, 1 won. Not so hot? Think again...

What if our participants keep having those same results? What if they don't learn from this election? What if they keep getting beat up by more-big-government lovers? What if FSP participants run mostly against the 'favorite' party in a given district? What if they keep going into races with virtually no name recognition? How will FSP participants fare if they simply continue the 'newcomer' track record from this election? Take a look... and then pick up the phone and call the moving company as fast as you can!

While we've tried real hard to keep track of early movers, it's been difficult. At the moment, we think there are 180 (I think there's well over 200, but we'll stick with the 'official' numbers for now). That means in 2008, there will be 180 pro-freedom FSP participants eligible to run for State House. Maybe only 18 early movers will run for State House. And if they return similar results to this election, 2 or 3 of them might win. Better? Sure! But wait, there's more...

If the First 1000 project is successful, in 2010, there should be nearly 1000 smaller government activists eligible to run. But what if the First 1000 project doesn't meet its goal? Maybe there'll only be 700. Maybe only 70 will run. Maybe only 10 will get elected. That's 1/40th the vote in the NH state house. If this were the U.S. Congress we were talking about, that would be the equivalent of having roughly 11 pro-freedom Congressmen. One Ron Paul is important (and he won't live forever). 11 of the Ron Paul type? That'd be downright exciting! But wait, there's more...

As of today, there are over 7,400 Free State Project participants. We haven't met our goal of 20,000 commitments yet, but we do know what our participants are capable of. We can point to a track record now. What if those 7,400 people decided to move within five years from right now, even if we never get to 20,000? Maybe that won't happen, but just what if it did? 2014 is a long ways away, but most of us will still be alive then. If the track record simple continues (no hyper inflated improvements here), in 2014 we'd have somewhere in the neighborhood of, check this out, 740 candidates for New Hampshire State House. That's almost 2 per seat (and how many major parties are there?). And if we keep up our first-timer track record, there may well be over 100 of them who win.

Are you listening? Over 100 seats? Is there anywhere in the world, any legislative body bigger than about 8 people covering a populace more than, oh, say, 1000 people that has that kind of representation? Imagine a quarter of all the votes in the House cast by die hard, freedom loving, patriotic, hard working legislators dedicated to protecting your freedom. That's exciting!

But, in fact, it's actually wrong. Why? There are lots of Representatives who already vote very libertarian. The New Hampshire Liberty Alliance, a pro-freedom non-partisan organization, endorsed 131 candidates for State Representative, 75(!!) of which were elected this year. 75 existing pro-freedom representatives plus over 100 more FSP participants doesn't equal outright control of the house, but it's pretty close.

I don't think I have to tell you what would happen if 20,000 dedicated pro-freedom activists moved to New Hampshire. And, none of this discussion touches on the countless ways FSP participants can improve their political results (and likely will next time around). I also haven't mentioned the numerous other victories on the local level and in other arenas.

Friends, at this point there is no question that this project can work if we can simply find quality people to actually come here and participate. There's no question that dedicated activists who make friends with their neighbors and work together for the cause of freedom can actually succeed.

There's also no question that government will keep getting bigger and more intrusive until we come together, here, and now, and make this realistic plan with demonstrated success into a reality.

Are you ready? Are you going to stay where you're at and watch government grow and become more intrusive as the colors shift from blue to red and back again? Are you going to sit on the sidelines, or are you going to make the sacrifice and help us find out what color a free state will really be?

The decision is yours. We're here when you're ready.

V-